This is not my subfield, but anyway assume only one adulterous partner (maybe more than one instance of cheating) and cheater is apologetic, wants to stay married. I would estimate:

1. Straight couple, no kids.

A. Man is cheater, 75% probability of divorce

B. Woman is cheater, 95% probability of divorce

2. Straight couple, with kids.

A. Man is cheater, 40% probability of divorce.

B. Woman is cheater, 85% probability of divorce.

3. Lesbian couple, no kids.- 85% probability of divorce.

4. Lesbian couple, w/kids- 70% probability of divorce (but few cases?)

5. Gay couple no kids -20% probability of divorce.

6. Gay couple, w/kids 10% probability of divorce (not so many cases, so big confidence interval.)

(For 5&6 probably monogamy not even assumed, but anyway.)

Thoughts?