well, for whatever reason my long post was deleted. I'm not going to type it all out again, but here is the short version:
Worst case scenario for the non-TT job:
predicted economic crisis hits in the next two years, your position gets cut, because they will always cut non-tt positions first, and suddenly they tell you this in march and there's no time to look for something else. Or maybe a TT has a class cancelled because of low enrollment and they take over yours. Meanwhile, you are making 16k less, with less security, higher COL, probably not saving for retirement or buying a house.
Worst case scenario for the CC job:
- your students are bad, your admin is bad, but no one cares that you lecture out of the publisher's powerpoints. You teach on autopilot, but are able to save for retirement, maybe buy a house and accrue some equity, and you use that extra money to do something interesting in the summer. Worst thing that will happen is that you'll get your feelings hurt when people pretend not to know you at ASA.
Sure, maybe you are the one person who will publish more once you start a 3-3 job in a new city, and that will lead to your dream r1 offer. But do understand the risks.